PEAK OIL:"Hello, World! I am here."

Below are two slides Cut & Paste from the "Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas" ASPO 2010 World Oil Conference.

The first slide shows that we have gone passed the first half of the Age of Oil as we know it...
Where in this first half of the Oil Age:
* Oil is located on-shore or near to shore,
* In vast reservoirs called giants and super-giants oil field,
* Mainly consist of Light & Sweet Crude Oil,
* Inexpensive to produce which cost around $1 to $10/barrel.
(These had become history)


Whereas in this second half of the oil age which are are now at...* Oil fields are far offshore or deep underground,* Scattered in hard to reach, yet small reservoirs,
* Mainly consist of Heavy and Sour Crude oil,
* Much more expensive to produce which cost $80 and more per barrel.

(This is what we are going to face)
Original Source of slide by Andre Angelantoni, Title: Where Are We Now?: <- The following slide is a Zoom-in of the chart to have a more detail view of current oil production scenario... It shows that there in not much spare oil production capacity in this world.


There are more presentation slides can be found in the following link. Which cover various aspects, such as Peak Oil Preparation and Investment topics, with over 30 presentations:->


For those who are first time to come across the topic of Peak Oil or not too familiar with it, the following is AN EXCELLENT 60 minutes video presentation by Congressman Roscoe Bartlett in the House in 2005. This important and valuable information had been overshadowed by few other major events, such as housing bubbles and Wall Street crisis... As these economy issues actually help to destroy oil demand to a certain extend and mitigate the oil price. But, the problem is still there, and it will re-surface with bigger trouble in these few years time frame... Possibly anytime now.

Part 1 of 7

Part 2 of 7, Part 3 of 7, Part 4 of 7, Part 5 of 7, Part 6 of 7, Part 7 of 7

…By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD. - Congressman Roscoe Bartlett at ASPO-USA World Oil Conference, 7 Oct 2010.
Link to Congressman Roscoe Bartlett Keynote Presentation Slides: <- Click Here


Below is a PowerPoint slide that introduce the peak oil concept to beginner. It has to be downloaded with PowerPoint format in order to see some of the animation...
A brief introduction to PEAK OIL.pps (<-: Download link from 4shared site)





Another Important Point is that...
None of the government in the world has formerly inform their citizens on this issue, and try to openly form organization figure out the solution. It is up to individual to share information (books, documentary, blog, etc) in the internet or self-organized group, such as ASPO to fan out the information... Example...



Data Speaks for itself:-> PDF Link <-
^Click on the Picture to ZOOM IN for better clarity:^


Oil Supply vs Stock Market in the History

Note: Since Money is a very flexible things nowadays, which means the printing of it can get very fast... and when the money flow into the Stock Market, it raise the index. So, it is not necessary that the market will go down... Only the future can tell.



Our World Governments Response to Peak Oil


Or they will have to give up the 2nd term, and
the following video is an good example.

video



"My father rode a camel. I drive a car.
My son flies a jet airplane.
His son will ride a camel."
- Saudi Saying


Note:
Many people think that Gold or Silver can preserve "Value"... That could be true during the process of change. And, ultimately, the world economy is fueled by energy.

As the Black Gold (oil) is now getting less and less, it would just cost more and more. Eventually, who has the power to control the oil supply, who dictates the rule of the game.


Relevant Article:
-> A Catch-22 Situation: Human Population On Earth <-


------------------------------------Added on Aug 2012--------------------------------

Here is an Alternative view about the Peak Oil... <-

------------------------------------ Added on Sep 2013 -------------------------------
One of the Best Presentation on the Subject on Peak Oil by  Matthew Simmons.




------------------------------------ Added on 04 Dec 2013 -------------------------------

US shale oil hides crude oil peak in rest of world   (<- charts="" click="" for="" link="" more="" p="" the="">




































The above link with an article by Matt Mushalik has more insight on how the current state of crude oil production and trending...










-> Comment <-

World Current Affairs - Quantitative Easing


Cut and paste for 100th monkey effect.

-----------------------------------------------8<------------------------------------------------ -----------------------------------------------8<------------------------------------------------ -----------------------------------------------8<------------------------------------------------ -----------------------------------------------8<------------------------------------------------ Quantitative Easing Explained

-----------------------------------------------8<------------------------------------------------



Well, there is a slang: "You put lipstick on a pig, it's still a pig." So, purely by creatively naming "Printing Money" as "Quantitative Easing" or anything else he may think of, is still "Printing Money".




"If you can not convince people, make it
complicated and confuse them."

Stock Market Tools (9) - Point & Figure Chart with Relative Strength





Point & Figure Chart is an extremely old tool that use to trade the market. The oldest chart was found in a book "The Game in Wall Street, and How to Play it Successfully" written by "HOYLE" and first published in 1898. This tool is



very effective in aiming for longer term movement rather than day trading kind of hit and run tactic. So, it is particularly good for people who are having a full time job, and want to handle their own money in trading the market.






Fig. 1 The first form of Point & Figure Chart found in old book published in 1898.




Fig 2. P&F Chart on Commodity ETF (DBC) dated 6 Nov 2010(EOD).

Chart generated with Bull-Eye's Broker Software

Click on the Chart to Zoom In for clearer view. ^


Over time, with the aid of computer, Relative Strength Benchmarking feature is also added in the P&F Chart. The Chart (Fig 2.) shows the P&F diagram of the ETF- DBC, along with the Relative Strength against SPY and SGDUSD (Singapore Dollar vs US Dollar).

The first Relative Strength is to benchmark the S&P500. One should always remember to select a vehicle that is moving faster than the broad market index.

For the second Relative Strength, one can choose to benchmark a currency exchange rate. For example, a foreigner may like to buy some stocks or ETFs in the US market, but worry about the profits may be eroded by the weak USD against their home currency... By having this Relative Strength benchmark, one can make sure that he choose a vehicle that is moving faster than the change of currency exchange rate.


Many traders who know Technical Analysis may not know much about this tool or just ignore it. The main stream media, of course, do not publicize such tool that encourage patient which would lead to low trading frequency and hurt trading firms' commission.

On the other hand, this is a very straight forward tool that one can simply get a book on P&F and use the online free resources:-


-> Ebooks (Some are still under copyright).



------------------------------------------ Tea Break --------------------------------------------

Isaac Newton Loses A Big Fortune in the South Sea Bubble:

Even Sir Isaac Newton (4 Jan 1643 - 31 Mar 1727), the well known English physicist, mathematician, astronomer, natural philosopher, and theologian, got caught up in the South Sea mania and invested a big chunk of his fortune. Interestingly, he pulled out early (after making a respectable 7,000 pounds) then went back in after the bubble continued to inflate. The inevitable bust happened and he lost 20,000 pounds - a considerable sum at the time.

As a result of this crisis, he stated "I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people".

Well. Recently, I heard of quite a few cases that some people due to what ever reasons, get out of their jobs in the corporation and just want to go trading for a living... Thinking that the success in one field can directly port over to the stock trading business within a short period of time. Such as buy a trading system, attend a class or just read a few books. This real story may help one to realize that success in one field or many fields such as a genius like Newton can fail in the Stock Market speculation miserably.

The objective of putting up this fact is not to deter anyone to get into the market, but rather to ask one to prepare seriously in advance. One should seriously consider study how the market works as a part of the retirement plan. Such as learning how a trading system works, how to test it, improve it, when to follow it and when not to follow it, forming a study group, etc... DON'T expect the insurance policies can help to cover the inflation (or if there is still any life insurance companies lift over after the baby boomers,1946-1964, had collected their shares.)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


"Put Stock in Yourself, that is the only
one that will always go up!"
-Bashar
 
 
 
----- Point & Figure Programming Flow Chart, Inserted on 25 July 2013----------------------
 


Project Atlas Shrugged!? (1): WHO KILLED THE ELECTRIC CAR?


In this documentry, Who Killed the Electric Car?(2006)...

Link for Part 1 of 10 (<-Click here to get into You-tube to see the subsequent parts)





In 1996, electric cars (EV1) began to appear on roads all over Califonia. They were quiet and fast, produced no exhaust and ran without gasoline.... Ten years later (2005), these futuristic cars were completely gone, as they were called back and scraped into dust by their manufacturer(GM) , while they are still in good working condition...

In the last part of the movie, it questioned who was the "One" who killed these electic cars.

At that time, people tend to believe that the manufacturer, GM, was under pressured by the Big Oil Organizations to get rid of those energy efficient cars, so that it would not hurt their oil's profits.

At first, this logical thinking made good scense... BUT, later in Jun 2009 GM declared bankruptcy!!! Then, if one were to think it over again... It make no sense that GM would allow the oil companies to dictate their survival as a company and not using those electic cars, which may save their company as the world is crying for energy efficient cars...

So, if this is not the logical reason, then what is? Not only "WHO" killed the electric car, but also "WHY" Killed the electric car??? What is the INTENTION and MOTIVE???

For those who had read the book - "Atlas Shrugged" by Ayn Rand, it provides a very strong and possible reason.(see the footnote below)  That is to keep it for the future, after the world have come to a complete collapsed due to Peak Oil.
Why wait until then? Because, if anyone sell such futuristic product in the market for the Fiat Currency, competitors all over the world would buy them and duplicate with reverse-engineering!

One must learn not to cheat himself, by good will or intention, that the world is now in a completely peace and harmony way. This is definitely not the case among the super-power countries... And, not even within their own country.


Footnote:
In the book, Atlas Shrugged, a fictional character by the name of John Galt had invented revolutionary new motor powered by ambient static electricity, which means it can used for generating electicity with almost zero maintenance cost.  He scrapped the proto-type and hided in a secret valley.  Because that he do not think the world system was set up correctly in his perspective, and he do not want them to enjoy the benefit of the invention.

Not only that, Galt then secretly  persuaded the world's creative leaders, including inventors, artists and businessmen on by one to quit and disappear from their position and join him.  He organized them in an effort to "stop the motor of the world" and bring about the collapse of the society. 

At the end, these group of Elites, lead by John Galt, appear as the heros to rescue the world and implement the blue print in their mind - how the New World Order should be.


All of us have one the following choices:-

1. Having an Open Mind


or






2. Avoid Thinking